• Keith Goldner, a Northwestern math student, has started a new blog on football analytics (http://drivebyfootball.blogspot.com/). His first post is a great tutorial on how to evaluate football decision making based on expected points.
• Sad that Mad Men will not return until 2012.
• Please watch the  last season of Friday Night Lights on NBC! FNL is best show at capturing the life struggles of typical Americans.
• Best show on TV to watch with your kids: Modern Family. Great acting, great writing, and every episode has a worthy moral lesson.
• Best TV dramedy: Nurse Jackie on Showtime. Edie Falco plays an adulterous drug addict who is a Saint! You have to watch to understand what I mean.

Henry Abbott of the great Truehoop.com site has created quite a stir by suggesting that if  the score is tied and your NBA opponent has the ball with <24 seconds to go in an NBA game you should foul them. I did a simple analysis of this situation and the decision is not clear cut.

In the example shown I assumed each team hits 40% of their endgame field goals and the team with the ball makes 70% of FT’s and is in the bonus. I also assumed that each team has a 50% chance of winning in overtime. I assumed nobody takes any 3 point shots.  For this situation if we do not foul we win only if opponent misses and we win in OT. This happens with probability .5 (1-.4)=.3. If we foul opponent makes - FT’s 9% of time, 1 FT  42% of time and 2 FT’s  49% of time. As Byron pointed out, I am assuming fouling team rebounds all missed FT’s.

• If opponent makes 0 FT’s we win if we make our last shot or win in OT. This occurs with probability .4 +.6*.5=.7.
• If opponent makes 1 FT we win if we make our shot. This occurs with probability .4
• If opponent makes 2 FT’s we win if we make our shot and win in overtime. This happens with probability .4(.5)=.2

Therefore if we foul we win with chance .09(.7)+.42(.4)+(.49).2 = .329.

Thus in this situation you should foul!!

The table above gives our chance of winning-opponent chance for various scenarios. The red numbers correspond to situations where fouling is beneficial.

Of course in a college game where other team is in 1-1 fouling is even better!

I also assumed that the opponent is equally likely to shoot any value between 65% and 85% from the foul line and each team is equally likely to  shoot any value between 30% and 45% chance of making a FG. Then fouling gives you a 2% smaller chance of winning than not fouling.

Best tournament ever! I hope so much Butler-VCU winner triumphs. Here are odds Thus UK has 45% chance of winning tourney, 14% chance of winning 5 games, and 41% chance of winning only 4 games.

For example, Kansas has a 12% chance of winning 3 games in tourney, 21% chance of winning 4 games, 21% chance of winning 5 games and a 46% chance of winning tournament,

In what follows we give NBA team ratings based on last 15 days, last 30 days  and whole season. You can see that teams should be terrified of facing the new look Nuggets. Despite their great record, these numbers give little indication that the Spurs are the league’s best. Also the “new look” Celtics do not look like they should be co-favorites with Heat and Bulls.

Whole Season

Last 30 days

 Last 15 days

Here are sweet 16 odds.

For example, Ohio State has a 29.56% chance of winning six games, 12.26%chance of winning exactly 5 games, etc.

 Here are odds for Round of 32. For example, Kansas has 17.24% chance of winning championship, 13.96% chance of winning  exactly 5 games, 13.88% chance of winning 4 games, 22.38% chance of winning 3 games, 10.94% chance of winning 2 games, and 21.6% chance of winning only one game.

Here are entire season NBA ratings . Each game given equal weight. Again I would not want to see Denver or Portland in the playoffs.

Here are last 30 day ratings. You can see Nuggets are on fire and the Wizards have played very poorly.

Here are ratings just based on last 10 days. You can see the Nets have really improved lately but the Nuggets have been by far the league’s best team. Bulls and Lakers have been amazing defensively. Clippers are also vastly improved.

Using the well-respected Sagarin ratings, here are the odds for the tournament. The given numbers are the chances that each team wins each possible number of games (I do not count a play-in win as a win here). So for Ohio State, for example, they have a 24.3 chance of winning the championship, a 12.2% chance of losing in the finals, a 15.96% chance of losing in the national semis, a 15.2% chance of losing in the regional final, a 16.9%  chance of losing in the regional semifinal, a 15.12% chance of losing in the second round, and a .28% chance of losing in the first round.

If you want the chance of each team winning at least a given number of games, look below; Thus Ohio State has has a 52.5% chance of making the Final 4. I used the raw Sagarin ratings. So for example, the rating for BYU is based on the whole season, not just on their recent games.

• Here are NBA team ratings based solely on games since all star break. Everyone says Lakers are hot but Nuggets have been amazing. Lakers  or Mavs may get Nuggets in 1st round and that should be quite a series!
•  The Wizards have been playing even worse than Cavs did during  their record setting losing streak.
•  Despite their gaudy record, I just do not think the Spurs are a great team. Their point differential is not that great and point differential is best predictor of future performance.
• My guess is somebody will catch Charlotte and Indiana for last playoff spot in East.