Here are NCAA picks based on Sagarin ratings. So Nova has 20.92% chance to win tournament, an 11.32% chance to win exactly 5 games, etc.
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Villanova | 0.72% | 13.56% | 17.82% | 18.98% | 16.68% | 11.32% | 20.92% |
| UVA | 0.88% | 19.30% | 17.62% | 20.96% | 13.02% | 11.90% | 16.32% |
| KANSAS | 3.98% | 20.06% | 21.18% | 21.76% | 15.48% | 7.84% | 9.70% |
| CINN | 6.32% | 21.42% | 22.08% | 23.32% | 10.16% | 8.48% | 8.22% |
| UNC | 2.70% | 25.28% | 24.64% | 18.82% | 13.58% | 7.80% | 7.18% |
| PURDUE | 2.60% | 27.92% | 22.42% | 24.94% | 10.26% | 5.64% | 6.22% |
| DUKE | 4.68% | 21.34% | 29.78% | 19.84% | 12.44% | 5.70% | 6.22% |
| MSU | 9.50% | 25.82% | 28.82% | 16.12% | 10.60% | 4.86% | 4.28% |
| ZAGS | 9.94% | 30.00% | 26.80% | 15.66% | 9.50% | 4.70% | 3.40% |
| XAVIER | 1.04% | 43.50% | 26.18% | 14.80% | 8.84% | 3.34% | 2.30% |
| TENN | 7.52% | 31.10% | 33.60% | 16.30% | 6.18% | 3.26% | 2.04% |
| MICH | 17.04% | 28.70% | 28.62% | 12.12% | 8.24% | 3.28% | 2.00% |
| AUB | 11.66% | 35.20% | 32.52% | 11.88% | 5.56% | 1.76% | 1.42% |
| TEX TECH | 10.82% | 31.96% | 31.84% | 17.00% | 5.12% | 1.90% | 1.36% |
| MIZZOU | 34.78% | 32.08% | 15.50% | 9.10% | 5.22% | 2.06% | 1.26% |
| WICH ST | 11.42% | 31.84% | 39.02% | 8.72% | 5.36% | 2.44% | 1.20% |
| UK | 31.54% | 28.70% | 26.92% | 7.40% | 3.48% | 1.20% | 0.76% |
| ARI | 27.40% | 33.94% | 27.10% | 6.90% | 2.48% | 1.50% | 0.68% |
| OHIO ST. | 28.22% | 41.06% | 17.02% | 8.18% | 3.82% | 1.10% | 0.60% |
| CLEMSON | 35.02% | 32.68% | 21.02% | 6.88% | 2.90% | 1.06% | 0.44% |
| TCU | 32.18% | 42.36% | 15.28% | 6.72% | 2.42% | 0.60% | 0.44% |
| HOUS | 35.58% | 35.36% | 18.20% | 6.54% | 3.06% | 0.84% | 0.42% |
| CREIGHTON | 46.68% | 42.08% | 5.50% | 3.48% | 1.40% | 0.56% | 0.30% |
| FLORIDA | 35.12% | 35.72% | 18.96% | 7.46% | 1.82% | 0.64% | 0.28% |
| WVA | 31.20% | 37.08% | 24.34% | 4.56% | 1.86% | 0.72% | 0.24% |
| MIAMI | 45.98% | 32.60% | 14.54% | 4.80% | 1.40% | 0.48% | 0.20% |
| TEX A&M | 41.88% | 40.46% | 9.68% | 4.80% | 2.12% | 0.86% | 0.20% |
| ARK | 47.86% | 35.50% | 8.46% | 6.10% | 1.50% | 0.40% | 0.18% |
| K STATE | 53.32% | 37.86% | 4.58% | 2.80% | 0.92% | 0.34% | 0.18% |
| LOYOLA | 54.02% | 29.96% | 11.40% | 3.42% | 0.92% | 0.16% | 0.12% |
| TEX | 48.48% | 37.68% | 8.14% | 4.26% | 0.90% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| SETON HALL | 39.36% | 44.84% | 8.46% | 5.00% | 1.82% | 0.42% | 0.10% |
| VA. TECH | 44.50% | 46.74% | 4.90% | 2.78% | 0.86% | 0.14% | 0.08% |
| BUT | 52.14% | 34.22% | 7.18% | 5.06% | 1.06% | 0.26% | 0.08% |
| DAVIDSON | 68.46% | 18.80% | 10.54% | 1.70% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.08% |
| FSU | 65.22% | 23.40% | 7.08% | 2.92% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| PROV | 58.12% | 31.80% | 5.96% | 2.66% | 1.16% | 0.22% | 0.08% |
| OKLA | 49.76% | 37.96% | 8.60% | 2.68% | 0.76% | 0.18% | 0.06% |
| SD ST. | 64.42% | 24.02% | 8.46% | 2.20% | 0.68% | 0.16% | 0.06% |
| NEW MEX ST | 64.98% | 22.62% | 9.32% | 2.26% | 0.60% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| RIU | 50.24% | 36.80% | 9.20% | 2.86% | 0.66% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| NEVADA | 51.52% | 35.86% | 8.02% | 3.48% | 0.84% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| ALA | 55.50% | 39.04% | 3.54% | 1.28% | 0.46% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| MONT | 82.96% | 11.92% | 4.20% | 0.62% | 0.26% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| UCLA | 80.38% | 13.02% | 5.02% | 1.34% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
| MARSHALL | 88.58% | 9.06% | 2.18% | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| MURRAY | 68.80% | 22.02% | 8.14% | 0.74% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| SFA | 89.18% | 8.62% | 2.00% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CAL FULL | 97.40% | 2.36% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PENN | 96.02% | 3.08% | 0.80% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NC ST | 60.64% | 32.02% | 4.74% | 1.74% | 0.72% | 0.14% | 0.00% |
| CHARLESTON | 88.34% | 9.50% | 1.96% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BUCK | 90.50% | 7.54% | 1.70% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IONA | 95.32% | 3.90% | 0.72% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UMBC | 99.12% | 0.76% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BUFF | 72.60% | 18.56% | 7.62% | 0.98% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| WRIGHT | 92.48% | 6.34% | 1.14% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| GSU | 93.68% | 5.04% | 1.08% | 0.18% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| UNC GREENS | 90.06% | 7.90% | 1.72% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SOUTH DAK | 71.78% | 21.04% | 5.68% | 1.28% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| LIPS | 97.30% | 2.46% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| LIU | 99.94% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RADFORD | 99.34% | 0.60% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NC CENTRAL | 99.70% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TEXAS SO. | 99.26% | 0.72% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ST. BON | 84.50% | 10.68% | 3.90% | 0.72% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ARI. ST. | 83.72% | 12.42% | 2.78% | 0.90% | 0.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SYR | 84.10% | 11.86% | 3.12% | 0.80% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
Here is the chance of each team winning >=n games. So Nova has 48.92% chance of winning >=4 games (making final 4.)
| >=1 | >=2 | >=3 | >=4 | >=5 | >=6 | |
| Villanova | 99.28% | 85.72% | 67.90% | 48.92% | 32.24% | 20.92% |
| UVA | 99.12% | 79.82% | 62.20% | 41.24% | 28.22% | 16.32% |
| KANSAS | 96.02% | 75.96% | 54.78% | 33.02% | 17.54% | 9.70% |
| CINN | 93.68% | 72.26% | 50.18% | 26.86% | 16.70% | 8.22% |
| UNC | 97.30% | 72.02% | 47.38% | 28.56% | 14.98% | 7.18% |
| PURDUE | 97.40% | 69.48% | 47.06% | 22.12% | 11.86% | 6.22% |
| DUKE | 95.32% | 73.98% | 44.20% | 24.36% | 11.92% | 6.22% |
| MSU | 90.50% | 64.68% | 35.86% | 19.74% | 9.14% | 4.28% |
| ZAGS | 90.06% | 60.06% | 33.26% | 17.60% | 8.10% | 3.40% |
| XAVIER | 98.96% | 55.46% | 29.28% | 14.48% | 5.64% | 2.30% |
| TENN | 92.48% | 61.38% | 27.78% | 11.48% | 5.30% | 2.04% |
| MICH | 82.96% | 54.26% | 25.64% | 13.52% | 5.28% | 2.00% |
| AUB | 88.34% | 53.14% | 20.62% | 8.74% | 3.18% | 1.42% |
| TEX TECH | 89.18% | 57.22% | 25.38% | 8.38% | 3.26% | 1.36% |
| MIZZOU | 65.22% | 33.14% | 17.64% | 8.54% | 3.32% | 1.26% |
| WICH ST | 88.58% | 56.74% | 17.72% | 9.00% | 3.64% | 1.20% |
| UK | 68.46% | 39.76% | 12.84% | 5.44% | 1.96% | 0.76% |
| ARI | 72.60% | 38.66% | 11.56% | 4.66% | 2.18% | 0.68% |
| OHIO ST. | 71.78% | 30.72% | 13.70% | 5.52% | 1.70% | 0.60% |
| CLEMSON | 64.98% | 32.30% | 11.28% | 4.40% | 1.50% | 0.44% |
| TCU | 67.82% | 25.46% | 10.18% | 3.46% | 1.04% | 0.44% |
| HOUS | 64.42% | 29.06% | 10.86% | 4.32% | 1.26% | 0.42% |
| CREIGHTON | 53.32% | 11.24% | 5.74% | 2.26% | 0.86% | 0.30% |
| FLORIDA | 64.88% | 29.16% | 10.20% | 2.74% | 0.92% | 0.28% |
| WVA | 68.80% | 31.72% | 7.38% | 2.82% | 0.96% | 0.24% |
| MIAMI | 54.02% | 21.42% | 6.88% | 2.08% | 0.68% | 0.20% |
| TEX A&M | 58.12% | 17.66% | 7.98% | 3.18% | 1.06% | 0.20% |
| ARK | 52.14% | 16.64% | 8.18% | 2.08% | 0.58% | 0.18% |
| K STATE | 46.68% | 8.82% | 4.24% | 1.44% | 0.52% | 0.18% |
| LOYOLA | 45.98% | 16.02% | 4.62% | 1.20% | 0.28% | 0.12% |
| TEX | 51.52% | 13.84% | 5.70% | 1.44% | 0.54% | 0.12% |
| SETON HALL | 60.64% | 15.80% | 7.34% | 2.34% | 0.52% | 0.10% |
| VA. TECH | 55.50% | 8.76% | 3.86% | 1.08% | 0.22% | 0.08% |
| BUT | 47.86% | 13.64% | 6.46% | 1.40% | 0.34% | 0.08% |
| DAVIDSON | 31.54% | 12.74% | 2.20% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.08% |
| FSU | 34.78% | 11.38% | 4.30% | 1.38% | 0.38% | 0.08% |
| PROV | 41.88% | 10.08% | 4.12% | 1.46% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| OKLA | 50.24% | 12.28% | 3.68% | 1.00% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| SD ST. | 35.58% | 11.56% | 3.10% | 0.90% | 0.22% | 0.06% |
| NEW MEX ST | 35.02% | 12.40% | 3.08% | 0.82% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| RIU | 49.76% | 12.96% | 3.76% | 0.90% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| NEVADA | 48.48% | 12.62% | 4.60% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| ALA | 44.50% | 5.46% | 1.92% | 0.64% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| MONT | 17.04% | 5.12% | 0.92% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
| UCLA | 19.62% | 6.60% | 1.58% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| MARSHALL | 11.42% | 2.36% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| MURRAY | 31.20% | 9.18% | 1.04% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| SFA | 10.82% | 2.20% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CAL FULL | 2.60% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PENN | 3.98% | 0.90% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NC ST | 39.36% | 7.34% | 2.60% | 0.86% | 0.14% | 0.00% |
| CHARLESTON | 11.66% | 2.16% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BUCK | 9.50% | 1.96% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IONA | 4.68% | 0.78% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UMBC | 0.88% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BUFF | 27.40% | 8.84% | 1.22% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| WRIGHT | 7.52% | 1.18% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| GSU | 6.32% | 1.28% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| UNC GREENS | 9.94% | 2.04% | 0.32% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SOUTH DAK | 28.22% | 7.18% | 1.50% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| LIPS | 2.70% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| LIU | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RADFORD | 0.66% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NC CENTRAL | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TEXAS SO. | 0.74% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ST. BON | 15.50% | 4.82% | 0.92% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ARI. ST. | 16.28% | 3.86% | 1.08% | 0.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SYR | 15.90% | 4.04% | 0.92% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |