Based on the trusted Sagarin ratings here are the chances of each team winning n games. I don’t count the stupid play in round!! SO Gionaga has a 15.86% chance of winning tourney. At 10-1 a good bet!
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Gonzaga | 1.16% | 12.76% | 31.76% | 13.36% | 15.78% | 9.32% | 15.86% |
| UNC | 0.62% | 18.20% | 22.40% | 23.38% | 13.74% | 9.84% | 11.82% |
| Villanova | 0.46% | 26.50% | 27.32% | 16.50% | 12.28% | 6.98% | 9.96% |
| UK | 1.84% | 34.90% | 21.52% | 17.90% | 9.68% | 6.76% | 7.40% |
| WVU | 5.26% | 25.48% | 35.62% | 10.68% | 10.24% | 5.58% | 7.14% |
| Kansas | 7.76% | 20.80% | 26.74% | 20.02% | 11.78% | 6.46% | 6.44% |
| Louisville | 1.34% | 33.00% | 26.58% | 16.56% | 10.92% | 5.54% | 6.06% |
| Duke | 2.14% | 23.52% | 29.98% | 23.26% | 10.62% | 4.92% | 5.56% |
| Oregon | 4.10% | 31.78% | 31.12% | 14.52% | 9.42% | 5.00% | 4.06% |
| Baylor | 8.12% | 34.96% | 27.88% | 15.92% | 7.30% | 3.06% | 2.76% |
| Florida | 10.24% | 41.32% | 26.70% | 10.08% | 6.26% | 2.94% | 2.46% |
| UVA | 12.88% | 39.40% | 26.24% | 9.88% | 6.14% | 3.02% | 2.44% |
| Purdue | 12.58% | 32.74% | 27.48% | 13.70% | 7.50% | 3.64% | 2.36% |
| UCLA | 4.80% | 37.22% | 34.30% | 13.36% | 5.30% | 2.88% | 2.14% |
| Wichita St. | 24.16% | 43.92% | 13.96% | 9.02% | 4.48% | 2.40% | 2.06% |
| Butler | 6.56% | 25.52% | 40.78% | 15.68% | 6.42% | 3.28% | 1.76% |
| FSU | 7.32% | 29.20% | 29.54% | 22.06% | 7.24% | 2.90% | 1.74% |
| Arizona | 4.22% | 38.10% | 24.58% | 21.94% | 6.82% | 2.62% | 1.72% |
| SMU | 31.88% | 36.12% | 17.22% | 9.38% | 3.32% | 1.18% | 0.90% |
| Wisconsin | 27.16% | 49.84% | 13.26% | 4.80% | 3.10% | 1.04% | 0.80% |
| St. Mary’s | 33.00% | 35.26% | 14.98% | 11.92% | 3.04% | 1.08% | 0.72% |
| Iowa St. | 26.86% | 38.54% | 18.58% | 9.48% | 4.16% | 1.68% | 0.70% |
| Cinn | 26.08% | 39.10% | 21.04% | 7.92% | 3.62% | 1.56% | 0.68% |
| ND | 19.84% | 53.08% | 18.64% | 4.22% | 2.48% | 1.18% | 0.56% |
| Creighton | 30.64% | 41.52% | 16.54% | 6.42% | 3.30% | 1.14% | 0.44% |
| Michigan | 49.16% | 32.86% | 10.02% | 4.90% | 1.96% | 0.78% | 0.32% |
| Okla. St. | 50.84% | 32.82% | 9.58% | 4.08% | 1.74% | 0.62% | 0.32% |
| Xavier | 45.54% | 34.16% | 13.02% | 5.70% | 1.18% | 0.26% | 0.14% |
| Miami | 44.24% | 39.44% | 9.98% | 4.22% | 1.64% | 0.34% | 0.14% |
| Minn | 37.38% | 40.72% | 16.88% | 3.78% | 0.82% | 0.30% | 0.12% |
| South Car | 50.40% | 36.96% | 8.16% | 3.56% | 0.62% | 0.22% | 0.08% |
| Arkansas | 45.10% | 43.78% | 6.50% | 3.26% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.06% |
| Mich St. | 55.76% | 34.20% | 6.74% | 2.58% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.04% |
| MTSU | 62.62% | 28.30% | 7.48% | 1.34% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.04% |
| Marquette | 49.60% | 37.50% | 8.52% | 3.38% | 0.86% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| Northwestern | 48.80% | 44.14% | 5.26% | 1.16% | 0.44% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| Vandy | 51.20% | 42.10% | 5.30% | 1.06% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| Maryland | 54.46% | 30.74% | 10.06% | 4.04% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| VCU | 67.00% | 22.64% | 6.44% | 3.22% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| Nevada | 73.14% | 19.30% | 5.96% | 1.22% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.02% |
| Seton Hall | 54.90% | 37.46% | 4.84% | 2.08% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| DAYTON | 75.84% | 19.46% | 3.18% | 1.16% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| K. State | 84.00% | 10.88% | 3.64% | 1.10% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| Wake Forest | 84.12% | 11.14% | 3.42% | 1.04% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| Va Tech | 72.84% | 23.22% | 3.00% | 0.64% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| Wilmington | 87.12% | 10.56% | 2.04% | 0.20% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ETSU | 89.76% | 8.72% | 1.42% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| New Mex. St. | 91.88% | 6.90% | 1.06% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Troy | 97.86% | 2.02% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| S. Dak. St. | 98.84% | 1.00% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Princeton | 80.16% | 17.16% | 2.38% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bucknell | 94.74% | 4.28% | 0.90% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FGCU | 92.68% | 5.90% | 1.20% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| N. Dakota | 95.78% | 4.00% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Vermont | 87.42% | 9.42% | 2.66% | 0.48% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| URI | 69.36% | 23.08% | 5.68% | 1.48% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| Iona | 95.90% | 3.62% | 0.46% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Jacksonville | 98.66% | 1.32% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Texas Southern | 99.38% | 0.56% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Winthrop | 93.44% | 5.46% | 1.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Kent St. | 95.20% | 4.40% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| N. Kent. | 98.16% | 1.72% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Mt. St. Mary’s | 99.78% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NO | 99.76% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NC Central | 92.46% | 5.36% | 1.84% | 0.32% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UC Davis | 99.78% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Providence | 89.18% | 8.14% | 2.14% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| USC | 84.74% | 11.14% | 3.34% | 0.62% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00%
|
Chnace of winning >=n games is given below. SO the Zags have 41% chance of making final 4.
| Team | >=1 | >=2 | >=3 | >=4 | >=5 | >=6 |
| Gonzaga | 98.84% | 86.08% | 54.32% | 40.96% | 25.18% | 15.86% |
| UNC | 99.38% | 81.18% | 58.78% | 35.40% | 21.66% | 11.82% |
| Villanova | 99.54% | 73.04% | 45.72% | 29.22% | 16.94% | 9.96% |
| UK | 98.16% | 63.26% | 41.74% | 23.84% | 14.16% | 7.40% |
| WVU | 94.74% | 69.26% | 33.64% | 22.96% | 12.72% | 7.14% |
| Kansas | 92.24% | 71.44% | 44.70% | 24.68% | 12.90% | 6.44% |
| Louisville | 98.66% | 65.66% | 39.08% | 22.52% | 11.60% | 6.06% |
| Duke | 97.86% | 74.34% | 44.36% | 21.10% | 10.48% | 5.56% |
| Oregon | 95.90% | 64.12% | 33.00% | 18.48% | 9.06% | 4.06% |
| Baylor | 91.88% | 56.92% | 29.04% | 13.12% | 5.82% | 2.76% |
| Florida | 89.76% | 48.44% | 21.74% | 11.66% | 5.40% | 2.46% |
| UVA | 87.12% | 47.72% | 21.48% | 11.60% | 5.46% | 2.44% |
| Purdue | 87.42% | 54.68% | 27.20% | 13.50% | 6.00% | 2.36% |
| UCLA | 95.20% | 57.98% | 23.68% | 10.32% | 5.02% | 2.14% |
| Wichita St. | 75.84% | 31.92% | 17.96% | 8.94% | 4.46% | 2.06% |
| Butler | 93.44% | 67.92% | 27.14% | 11.46% | 5.04% | 1.76% |
| FSU | 92.68% | 63.48% | 33.94% | 11.88% | 4.64% | 1.74% |
| Arizona | 95.78% | 57.68% | 33.10% | 11.16% | 4.34% | 1.72% |
| SMU | 68.12% | 32.00% | 14.78% | 5.40% | 2.08% | 0.90% |
| Wisconsin | 72.84% | 23.00% | 9.74% | 4.94% | 1.84% | 0.80% |
| St. Mary’s | 67.00% | 31.74% | 16.76% | 4.84% | 1.80% | 0.72% |
| Iowa St. | 73.14% | 34.60% | 16.02% | 6.54% | 2.38% | 0.70% |
| Cinn | 73.92% | 34.82% | 13.78% | 5.86% | 2.24% | 0.68% |
| ND | 80.16% | 27.08% | 8.44% | 4.22% | 1.74% | 0.56% |
| Creighton | 69.36% | 27.84% | 11.30% | 4.88% | 1.58% | 0.44% |
| Michigan | 50.84% | 17.98% | 7.96% | 3.06% | 1.10% | 0.32% |
| Okla. St. | 49.16% | 16.34% | 6.76% | 2.68% | 0.94% | 0.32% |
| Xavier | 54.46% | 20.30% | 7.28% | 1.58% | 0.40% | 0.14% |
| Miami | 55.76% | 16.32% | 6.34% | 2.12% | 0.48% | 0.14% |
| Minn | 62.62% | 21.90% | 5.02% | 1.24% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| South Car | 49.60% | 12.64% | 4.48% | 0.92% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| Arkansas | 54.90% | 11.12% | 4.62% | 1.36% | 0.36% | 0.06% |
| Mich St. | 44.24% | 10.04% | 3.30% | 0.72% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| MTSU | 37.38% | 9.08% | 1.60% | 0.26% | 0.10% | 0.04% |
| Marquette | 50.40% | 12.90% | 4.38% | 1.00% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| Northwestern | 51.20% | 7.06% | 1.80% | 0.64% | 0.20% | 0.02% |
| Vandy | 48.80% | 6.70% | 1.40% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
| Maryland | 45.54% | 14.80% | 4.74% | 0.70% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| VCU | 33.00% | 10.36% | 3.92% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| Nevada | 26.86% | 7.56% | 1.60% | 0.38% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| Seton Hall | 45.10% | 7.64% | 2.80% | 0.72% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| DAYTON | 24.16% | 4.70% | 1.52% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| K. State | 16.00% | 5.12% | 1.48% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| Wake Forest | 15.88% | 4.74% | 1.32% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
| Va Tech | 27.16% | 3.94% | 0.94% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| Wilmington | 12.88% | 2.32% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ETSU | 10.24% | 1.52% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| New Mex. St. | 8.12% | 1.22% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Troy | 2.14% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| S. Dak. St. | 1.16% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Princeton | 19.84% | 2.68% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bucknell | 5.26% | 0.98% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FGCU | 7.32% | 1.42% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| N. Dakota | 4.22% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Vermont | 12.58% | 3.16% | 0.50% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| URI | 30.64% | 7.56% | 1.88% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| Iona | 4.10% | 0.48% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Jacksonville | 1.34% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Texas Southern | 0.62% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Winthrop | 6.56% | 1.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Kent St. | 4.80% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| N. Kent. | 1.84% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Mt. St. Mary’s | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NO | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NC Central | 7.54% | 2.18% | 0.34% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UC Davis | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Providence | 10.82% | 2.68% | 0.54% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| USC | 15.26% | 4.12% | 0.78% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |