March 19, 2016

NCAA Probabilities Round of 32.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:13 am

Here are chances of each team winning a given number of games.

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6
Kansas 0.2272 0.1702 0.212 0.1214 0.101 0.1682
UVA 0.2552 0.1912 0.1416 0.164 0.1078 0.1402
UNC 0.1704 0.3336 0.132 0.135 0.091 0.138
VILL 0.323 0.2396 0.193 0.0888 0.0666 0.089
OKLA 0.2578 0.2754 0.1846 0.1454 0.0642 0.0726
UK 0.4622 0.2794 0.0902 0.072 0.05 0.0462
XAV 0.3344 0.2052 0.2676 0.0996 0.0518 0.0414
DUKE 0.262 0.3336 0.1906 0.1252 0.0496 0.039
A AND M 0.2102 0.4064 0.1796 0.119 0.0496 0.0352
ORE 0.281 0.2998 0.2158 0.1264 0.0424 0.0346
IND 0.5378 0.2572 0.0808 0.0576 0.0334 0.0332
GONZ 0.4548 0.1684 0.2204 0.0916 0.0398 0.025
MIA 0.4744 0.2998 0.1316 0.0476 0.0264 0.0202
ISU 0.2618 0.4694 0.1244 0.089 0.0352 0.0202
MD 0.2654 0.4922 0.141 0.0552 0.027 0.0192
UTAH 0.5452 0.1514 0.1876 0.075 0.025 0.0158
Wichita 0.5256 0.2832 0.117 0.038 0.0206 0.0156
SYR 0.2314 0.4838 0.1958 0.0628 0.0182 0.008
ND 0.4142 0.3498 0.1704 0.04 0.0178 0.0078
BUT 0.7448 0.1214 0.067 0.0442 0.0156 0.007
IOWA 0.677 0.1774 0.0944 0.0306 0.0142 0.0064
WISC 0.6656 0.1636 0.1272 0.0256 0.0128 0.0052
UCONN 0.7728 0.1122 0.0774 0.0232 0.0096 0.0048
VCU 0.7422 0.1558 0.0666 0.0264 0.0076 0.0014
YALE 0.738 0.1804 0.0616 0.0162 0.0026 0.0012
HAW 0.7346 0.2254 0.0336 0.004 0.0014 0.001
PROV 0.8296 0.1298 0.027 0.0094 0.0032 0.001
STJOES 0.719 0.1862 0.0644 0.023 0.0066 0.0008
SFA 0.5858 0.2814 0.1048 0.021 0.0062 0.0008
UALR 0.7382 0.218 0.0312 0.0104 0.0016 0.0006
UNI 0.7898 0.1624 0.0368 0.0096 0.001 0.0004
MTSU 0.7686 0.1964 0.032 0.0028 0.0002 0

 

Here are chances of each team wining >=N games

Team >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kansas 0.7728 0.6026 0.3906 0.2692 0.1682
UVA 0.7448 0.5536 0.412 0.248 0.1402
UNC 0.8296 0.496 0.364 0.229 0.138
VILL 0.677 0.4374 0.2444 0.1556 0.089
OKLA 0.7422 0.4668 0.2822 0.1368 0.0726
UK 0.5378 0.2584 0.1682 0.0962 0.0462
XAV 0.6656 0.4604 0.1928 0.0932 0.0414
DUKE 0.738 0.4044 0.2138 0.0886 0.039
A AND M 0.7898 0.3834 0.2038 0.0848 0.0352
ORE 0.719 0.4192 0.2034 0.077 0.0346
IND 0.4622 0.205 0.1242 0.0666 0.0332
GONZ 0.5452 0.3768 0.1564 0.0648 0.025
MIA 0.5256 0.2258 0.0942 0.0466 0.0202
ISU 0.7382 0.2688 0.1444 0.0554 0.0202
MD 0.7346 0.2424 0.1014 0.0462 0.0192
UTAH 0.4548 0.3034 0.1158 0.0408 0.0158
Wichita 0.4744 0.1912 0.0742 0.0362 0.0156
SYR 0.7686 0.2848 0.089 0.0262 0.008
ND 0.5858 0.236 0.0656 0.0256 0.0078
BUT 0.2552 0.1338 0.0668 0.0226 0.007
IOWA 0.323 0.1456 0.0512 0.0206 0.0064
WISC 0.3344 0.1708 0.0436 0.018 0.0052
UCONN 0.2272 0.115 0.0376 0.0144 0.0048
VCU 0.2578 0.102 0.0354 0.009 0.0014
YALE 0.262 0.0816 0.02 0.0038 0.0012
HAW 0.2654 0.04 0.0064 0.0024 0.001
PROV 0.1704 0.0406 0.0136 0.0042 0.001
STJOES 0.281 0.0948 0.0304 0.0074 0.0008
SFA 0.4142 0.1328 0.028 0.007 0.0008
UALR 0.2618 0.0438 0.0126 0.0022 0.0006
UNI 0.2102 0.0478 0.011 0.0014 0.0004
MTSU 0.2314 0.035 0.003 0.0002 0

Bookmark worthy

March 17, 2016

COrrected NCAA Probabilities

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:19 am

Sorry I gave Oklahoma no chance to win in last simulation(I  had left out there rating). Here are corrected probabilities

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Kansas 0.48% 18.02% 18.36% 21.12% 11.94% 12.18% 17.90%
MSU 3.54% 14.32% 19.60% 23.80% 15.10% 8.42% 15.22%
UNC 1.70% 16.36% 30.68% 17.72% 14.68% 7.94% 10.92%
UVA 0.64% 21.88% 28.26% 21.28% 12.22% 7.26% 8.46%
VILL 3.70% 28.10% 25.34% 21.00% 7.48% 7.16% 7.22%
OKLA 7.10% 20.62% 25.28% 17.92% 15.48% 7.88% 5.72%
WVA 16.98% 19.92% 21.18% 20.68% 10.80% 4.82% 5.62%
ORE 0.90% 32.52% 28.36% 18.72% 11.50% 4.68% 3.32%
PUR 15.96% 27.58% 28.72% 14.72% 6.26% 3.46% 3.30%
UK 11.10% 38.24% 27.42% 9.90% 7.52% 2.94% 2.88%
IND 10.10% 43.64% 25.56% 9.84% 5.70% 2.74% 2.42%
XAV 7.36% 31.28% 30.80% 17.54% 7.50% 3.20% 2.32%
A AND M 9.56% 29.78% 30.40% 13.98% 10.46% 3.60% 2.22%
DUKE 16.28% 31.94% 23.02% 14.34% 9.04% 3.46% 1.92%
MIA 7.36% 44.84% 27.50% 12.20% 4.08% 2.44% 1.58%
ARIZ 44.56% 25.50% 16.08% 8.42% 2.72% 1.50% 1.22%
MD 18.84% 32.64% 33.16% 8.80% 3.56% 1.82% 1.18%
IOWA 18.64% 51.98% 15.72% 8.58% 2.58% 1.72% 0.78%
CAL 27.28% 34.80% 26.96% 6.98% 2.26% 1.02% 0.70%
BAY 31.12% 35.00% 17.28% 9.58% 4.64% 1.68% 0.70%
Wicita 55.44% 22.80% 12.86% 5.14% 2.00% 1.08% 0.68%
ISU 17.84% 46.06% 22.52% 8.40% 3.44% 1.10% 0.64%
TEX 29.84% 40.08% 18.56% 6.58% 3.46% 1.02% 0.46%
GONZ 44.58% 23.46% 21.34% 6.72% 2.64% 0.80% 0.46%
UTAH 18.62% 40.26% 27.64% 8.46% 3.40% 1.20% 0.42%
UCONN 36.34% 49.76% 6.72% 4.68% 1.60% 0.60% 0.30%
HALL 55.42% 21.16% 16.96% 4.20% 1.58% 0.44% 0.24%
VCU 41.74% 41.46% 10.32% 4.22% 1.74% 0.36% 0.16%
MICH 51.64% 33.84% 8.64% 4.38% 1.16% 0.18% 0.16%
SYR 47.96% 42.52% 5.50% 2.96% 0.84% 0.08% 0.14%
WISC 50.60% 31.02% 11.64% 5.08% 1.24% 0.30% 0.12%
BUT 39.44% 44.70% 9.70% 4.38% 1.30% 0.36% 0.12%
STJOES 57.44% 29.84% 8.42% 3.10% 0.80% 0.32% 0.08%
CIN 42.56% 36.74% 12.18% 5.46% 2.36% 0.62% 0.08%
PROV 50.04% 41.66% 5.98% 1.50% 0.54% 0.20% 0.08%
PITT 49.40% 31.54% 12.58% 4.68% 1.34% 0.38% 0.08%
COLO 63.66% 31.78% 2.58% 1.52% 0.30% 0.12% 0.04%
OR ST 58.26% 32.52% 6.66% 1.78% 0.64% 0.10% 0.04%
ND 48.36% 35.84% 9.68% 4.94% 0.98% 0.16% 0.04%
YALE 68.88% 21.24% 6.98% 2.04% 0.68% 0.16% 0.02%
USC 49.96% 40.66% 7.12% 1.74% 0.46% 0.04% 0.02%
SFA 83.02% 10.40% 4.48% 1.66% 0.32% 0.10% 0.02%
Aus Peay 99.52% 0.44% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SDST 81.16% 13.30% 5.04% 0.44% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00%
HAW 72.72% 19.26% 7.14% 0.72% 0.10% 0.06% 0.00%
BUFF 92.64% 6.86% 0.44% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEMPLE 81.36% 16.58% 1.70% 0.34% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCA 96.30% 3.34% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FCGU 99.10% 0.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCW 83.72% 11.82% 3.76% 0.58% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00%
UNI 70.16% 22.72% 5.44% 1.24% 0.36% 0.08% 0.00%
GB 90.44% 7.42% 1.90% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CSB 92.90% 5.40% 1.44% 0.22% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
FGCU 98.30% 1.32% 0.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CHAT 89.90% 9.06% 1.02% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
STONY 88.90% 9.06% 1.84% 0.16% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
WEB 92.64% 6.16% 1.00% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
HAM 99.36% 0.58% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEXAS TECH 60.56% 32.84% 4.54% 1.64% 0.36% 0.06% 0.00%
UALR 84.04% 11.08% 3.94% 0.80% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
IONA 82.16% 15.28% 2.26% 0.22% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
FRES 81.38% 15.12% 3.26% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
DAYTON 52.04% 40.40% 5.04% 2.08% 0.32% 0.12% 0.00%
MTSU 96.46% 2.76% 0.66% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

 

Here is chance each team wins >=N games

Team >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kansas 99.52% 81.50% 63.14% 42.02% 30.08% 17.90%
MSU 96.46% 82.14% 62.54% 38.74% 23.64% 15.22%
UNC 98.30% 81.94% 51.26% 33.54% 18.86% 10.92%
UVA 99.36% 77.48% 49.22% 27.94% 15.72% 8.46%
VILL 96.30% 68.20% 42.86% 21.86% 14.38% 7.22%
OKLA 92.90% 72.28% 47.00% 29.08% 13.60% 5.72%
WVA 83.02% 63.10% 41.92% 21.24% 10.44% 5.62%
ORE 99.10% 66.58% 38.22% 19.50% 8.00% 3.32%
PUR 84.04% 56.46% 27.74% 13.02% 6.76% 3.30%
UK 88.90% 50.66% 23.24% 13.34% 5.82% 2.88%
IND 89.90% 46.26% 20.70% 10.86% 5.16% 2.42%
XAV 92.64% 61.36% 30.56% 13.02% 5.52% 2.32%
A AND M 90.44% 60.66% 30.26% 16.28% 5.82% 2.22%
DUKE 83.72% 51.78% 28.76% 14.42% 5.38% 1.92%
MIA 92.64% 47.80% 20.30% 8.10% 4.02% 1.58%
ARIZ 55.44% 29.94% 13.86% 5.44% 2.72% 1.22%
MD 81.16% 48.52% 15.36% 6.56% 3.00% 1.18%
IOWA 81.36% 29.38% 13.66% 5.08% 2.50% 0.78%
CAL 72.72% 37.92% 10.96% 3.98% 1.72% 0.70%
BAY 68.88% 33.88% 16.60% 7.02% 2.38% 0.70%
Wicita 44.56% 21.76% 8.90% 3.76% 1.76% 0.68%
ISU 82.16% 36.10% 13.58% 5.18% 1.74% 0.64%
TEX 70.16% 30.08% 11.52% 4.94% 1.48% 0.46%
GONZ 55.42% 31.96% 10.62% 3.90% 1.26% 0.46%
UTAH 81.38% 41.12% 13.48% 5.02% 1.62% 0.42%
UCONN 63.66% 13.90% 7.18% 2.50% 0.90% 0.30%
HALL 44.58% 23.42% 6.46% 2.26% 0.68% 0.24%
VCU 58.26% 16.80% 6.48% 2.26% 0.52% 0.16%
MICH 48.36% 14.52% 5.88% 1.50% 0.34% 0.16%
SYR 52.04% 9.52% 4.02% 1.06% 0.22% 0.14%
WISC 49.40% 18.38% 6.74% 1.66% 0.42% 0.12%
BUT 60.56% 15.86% 6.16% 1.78% 0.48% 0.12%
STJOES 42.56% 12.72% 4.30% 1.20% 0.40% 0.08%
CIN 57.44% 20.70% 8.52% 3.06% 0.70% 0.08%
PROV 49.96% 8.30% 2.32% 0.82% 0.28% 0.08%
PITT 50.60% 19.06% 6.48% 1.80% 0.46% 0.08%
COLO 36.34% 4.56% 1.98% 0.46% 0.16% 0.04%
OR ST 41.74% 9.22% 2.56% 0.78% 0.14% 0.04%
ND 51.64% 15.80% 6.12% 1.18% 0.20% 0.04%
YALE 31.12% 9.88% 2.90% 0.86% 0.18% 0.02%
USC 50.04% 9.38% 2.26% 0.52% 0.06% 0.02%
SFA 16.98% 6.58% 2.10% 0.44% 0.12% 0.02%
Aus Peay 0.48% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SDST 18.84% 5.54% 0.50% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%
HAW 27.28% 8.02% 0.88% 0.16% 0.06% 0.00%
BUFF 7.36% 0.50% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEMPLE 18.64% 2.06% 0.36% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCA 3.70% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FCGU 0.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCW 16.28% 4.46% 0.70% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00%
UNI 29.84% 7.12% 1.68% 0.44% 0.08% 0.00%
GB 9.56% 2.14% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CSB 7.10% 1.70% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
FGCU 1.70% 0.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CHAT 10.10% 1.04% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
STONY 11.10% 2.04% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
WEB 7.36% 1.20% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
HAM 0.64% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEXAS TECH 39.44% 6.60% 2.06% 0.42% 0.06% 0.00%
UALR 15.96% 4.88% 0.94% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
IONA 17.84% 2.56% 0.30% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
FRES 18.62% 3.50% 0.24% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
DAYTON 47.96% 7.56% 2.52% 0.44% 0.12% 0.00%
MTSU 3.54% 0.78% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

March 13, 2016

NBA Ratings March 12

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:21 am

It will be interesting to see how Warriors handle AI’s injury.

Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
San Antonio Spurs 1.72 -10.02 11.74 7 1
Golden State   Warriors 13.04 3.21 9.83 1 23
Oklahoma City   Thunder 6.68 0.87 5.81 2 18
Los Angeles Clippers 1.65 -3.22 4.87 8 7
Boston Celtics 4.39 -0.03 4.41 4 14
Toronto Raptors 1.00 -3.33 4.33 9 5
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 -4.29 4.29 15 4
Atlanta Hawks 0.04 -3.30 3.33 14 6
Detroit Pistons -0.06 -2.27 2.21 16 9
Portland Trail Blazers 2.54 1.03 1.51 6 19
Charlotte Hornets 0.05 -1.19 1.24 13 10
Indiana Pacers -0.10 -1.02 0.92 17 11
Utah Jazz -5.96 -6.60 0.64 30 2
Miami Heat -3.77 -4.33 0.56 25 3
Houston Rockets 4.24 3.71 0.53 5 26
Dallas Mavericks -0.31 0.06 -0.37 18 15
Memphis Grizzlies -3.63 -3.21 -0.42 24 8
Denver Nuggets 0.17 1.47 -1.31 11 20
Sacramento Kings 5.04 6.74 -1.70 3 30
Chicago Bulls -1.26 0.44 -1.70 19 16
Orlando Magic -1.93 -0.04 -1.89 22 13
Washington Wizards 0.92 3.08 -2.16 10 22
New York Knicks -3.25 -1.01 -2.24 23 12
New Orleans Pelicans 0.06 3.51 -3.45 12 24
Milwaukee Bucks -3.96 0.55 -4.51 26 17
Minnesota   Timberwolves -1.27 3.99 -5.26 20 27
Brooklyn Nets -4.56 1.71 -6.27 27 21
Phoenix Suns -1.80 4.47 -6.27 21 28
Los Angeles Lakers -5.01 3.68 -8.69 29 25
Philadelphia 76ers -4.69 5.33 -10.01 28 29

 

March 7, 2016

NBA Ratings March 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:13 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.80

-9.89

11.69

7

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.75

3.04

9.72

1

24

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

6.87

1.12

5.75

2

19

4

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-4.77

4.77

14

4

5

Los Angeles Clippers

1.68

-2.89

4.57

8

7

6

Boston Celtics

4.53

-0.02

4.56

4

14

7

Toronto Raptors

1.04

-3.18

4.23

10

6

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-2.72

2.76

13

8

9

Detroit Pistons

-0.05

-2.21

2.16

15

9

10

Portland Trail Blazers

2.32

1.01

1.32

6

18

11

Charlotte Hornets

-0.67

-1.87

1.19

18

10

12

Indiana Pacers

-0.09

-0.87

0.78

16

11

13

Miami Heat

-4.36

-4.89

0.53

27

3

14

Houston Rockets

4.23

3.80

0.43

5

25

15

Utah Jazz

-5.86

-6.21

0.34

30

2

16

Dallas Mavericks

-0.24

0.06

-0.30

17

15

17

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.81

-3.48

-0.34

24

5

18

Orlando Magic

-1.40

-0.04

-1.35

21

13

19

Washington Wizards

1.33

2.80

-1.48

9

23

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.13

0.37

-1.50

19

16

21

Denver Nuggets

0.13

1.93

-1.80

11

20

22

Sacramento Kings

5.02

6.86

-1.84

3

30

23

New York Knicks

-3.12

-0.75

-2.37

23

12

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.06

2.70

-2.63

12

22

25

Milwaukee Bucks

-3.96

0.97

-4.93

25

17

26

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.17

3.98

-5.15

20

27

27

Phoenix Suns

-1.46

4.10

-5.55

22

28

28

Brooklyn Nets

-4.28

2.05

-6.33

26

21

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.26

3.81

-9.07

29

26

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.94

5.21

-10.16

28

29

February 28, 2016

NBA Ratings February 27

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:01 am
Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 San Antonio Spurs 2.29 -9.03 11.32 6 1
2 Golden State Warriors 13.15 3.15 10.01 1 23
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 7.29 1.29 6.00 2 20
4 Los Angeles Clippers 2.15 -2.64 4.79 7 7
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 -4.64 4.63 14 4
6 Toronto Raptors 1.00 -3.57 4.56 10 5
7 Boston Celtics 4.50 -0.02 4.52 5 15
8 Detroit Pistons -0.04 -2.39 2.35 15 8
9 Atlanta Hawks 0.30 -2.04 2.33 12 9
10 Portland Trail Blazers 1.88 0.67 1.21 8 17
11 Indiana Pacers -0.06 -1.05 0.99 16 11
12 Houston Rockets 4.59 3.62 0.97 4 25
13 Utah Jazz -5.52 -6.38 0.86 28 2
14 Miami Heat -4.98 -5.36 0.38 27 3
15 Charlotte Hornets -1.21 -1.23 0.01 20 10
16 Memphis Grizzlies -3.66 -3.20 -0.46 24 6
17 Dallas Mavericks -0.89 -0.24 -0.65 17 13
18 Denver Nuggets 0.11 1.27 -1.15 13 19
19 Chicago Bulls -1.06 0.22 -1.28 18 16
20 Sacramento Kings 5.48 6.76 -1.28 3 30
21 Washington Wizards 1.51 2.93 -1.42 9 22
22 Orlando Magic -1.71 -0.05 -1.65 22 14
23 New Orleans Pelicans 0.89 3.20 -2.31 11 24
24 New York Knicks -2.94 -0.38 -2.56 23 12
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.07 3.62 -4.69 19 26
26 Milwaukee Bucks -4.45 0.85 -5.30 25 18
27 Phoenix Suns -1.52 4.09 -5.61 21 28
28 Brooklyn Nets -4.87 1.62 -6.49 26 21
29 Los Angeles Lakers -5.52 4.04 -9.56 29 27
30 Philadelphia 76ers -5.67 4.86 -10.52 30 29

February 6, 2016

NBA Ratings February 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:45 am
Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 San Antonio Spurs 3.22 -9.64 12.87 6 1
2 Golden State Warriors 13.66 2.77 10.89 1 22
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 7.41 1.03 6.38 2 19
4 Boston Celtics 3.59 -1.24 4.84 5 10
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 -4.17 4.16 15 4
6 Los Angeles Clippers 2.18 -1.96 4.14 7 8
7 Toronto Raptors 0.42 -3.23 3.65 13 6
8 Indiana Pacers 1.16 -0.85 2.01 10 12
9 Detroit Pistons 0.03 -1.96 1.99 14 7
10 Atlanta Hawks -0.07 -1.79 1.72 16 9
11 Utah Jazz -5.34 -6.60 1.26 29 2
12 Portland Trail Blazers 2.04 1.02 1.01 9 18
13 Houston Rockets 5.08 4.47 0.61 4 28
14 Chicago Bulls -0.09 -0.60 0.50 17 13
15 Miami Heat -5.29 -5.23 -0.06 27 3
16 Memphis Grizzlies -4.37 -3.64 -0.73 24 5
17 Denver Nuggets 0.53 1.35 -0.82 12 21
18 Dallas Mavericks -1.92 -0.97 -0.95 21 11
19 Charlotte Hornets -1.16 0.02 -1.18 18 15
20 Sacramento Kings 5.11 6.52 -1.42 3 30
21 Orlando Magic -2.03 -0.35 -1.68 22 14
22 Washington Wizards 2.09 4.02 -1.92 8 26
23 New York Knicks -2.47 0.08 -2.55 23 16
24 New Orleans Pelicans 0.91 3.47 -2.56 11 25
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.57 3.21 -4.78 20 23
26 Phoenix Suns -1.34 4.03 -5.36 19 27
27 Milwaukee Bucks -4.59 0.90 -5.50 25 17
28 Brooklyn Nets -5.33 1.26 -6.59 28 20
29 Philadelphia 76ers -5.27 4.68 -9.95 26 29
30 Los Angeles Lakers -6.58 3.40 -9.98 30 24

January 31, 2016

NBA Ratings Jan 31

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:09 pm

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

3.02

-10.23

13.25

6

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.98

3.07

9.91

1

22

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.45

1.04

6.41

2

17

4

Boston Celtics

3.70

-1.00

4.70

5

13

5

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-4.32

4.32

15

4

6

Toronto Raptors

0.70

-3.54

4.24

12

5

7

Los Angeles Clippers

2.22

-1.51

3.73

8

9

8

Indiana Pacers

1.09

-1.39

2.48

11

11

9

Detroit Pistons

0.02

-2.14

2.16

14

7

10

Chicago Bulls

-0.09

-1.84

1.74

16

8

11

Atlanta Hawks

-0.14

-1.47

1.34

17

10

12

Utah Jazz

-4.91

-5.87

0.96

27

2

13

Portland Trail Blazers

1.74

1.53

0.20

9

20

14

Houston Rockets

4.43

4.58

-0.14

4

28

15

Miami Heat

-5.45

-5.12

-0.33

28

3

16

Dallas Mavericks

-1.37

-0.90

-0.47

20

14

17

Memphis Grizzlies

-4.06

-3.36

-0.70

24

6

18

Charlotte Hornets

-0.81

0.06

-0.87

18

15

19

Orlando Magic

-2.11

-1.06

-1.05

23

12

20

Washington Wizards

2.61

3.86

-1.25

7

26

21

Sacramento Kings

4.57

6.23

-1.66

3

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.18

2.00

-1.82

13

21

23

New Orleans Pelicans

1.28

3.13

-1.84

10

23

24

New York Knicks

-1.98

0.19

-2.17

21

16

25

Phoenix Suns

-1.33

3.92

-5.25

19

27

26

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.98

3.35

-5.33

22

24

27

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.31

1.18

-5.49

25

19

28

Brooklyn Nets

-6.15

1.10

-7.25

29

18

29

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.64

4.70

-9.34

26

29

30

Los Angeles Lakers

-6.65

3.81

-10.46

30

25

January 23, 2016

NBA Ratings Jan 23

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:22 am
Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
San Antonio Spurs 2.51 -11.73 14.24 6 1
Golden State   Warriors 12.41 2.80 9.61 1 23
Oklahoma City   Thunder 7.27 -0.38 7.65 2 12
Los Angeles Clippers 3.01 -1.10 4.11 5 10
Detroit Pistons 0.03 -3.22 3.25 11 6
Boston Celtics 2.33 -0.36 2.70 7 13
Toronto Raptors -0.79 -3.29 2.50 22 5
Indiana Pacers 1.16 -0.78 1.94 9 11
Atlanta Hawks 0.02 -1.72 1.73 12 8
Cleveland Cavaliers 1.00 0.00 1.00 10 16
Charlotte Hornets -0.35 -1.19 0.84 17 9
Chicago Bulls 0.01 -0.24 0.25 14 14
Utah Jazz -5.00 -5.22 0.22 27 2
Orlando Magic -2.41 -2.20 -0.20 24 7
Houston Rockets 3.21 3.70 -0.49 4 27
Dallas Mavericks -0.73 0.00 -0.73 21 15
Miami Heat -5.84 -4.96 -0.89 29 3
Portland Trail Blazers 1.16 2.23 -1.06 8 21
Sacramento Kings 4.09 5.48 -1.39 3 30
Memphis Grizzlies -4.99 -3.48 -1.52 26 4
New York Knicks -1.49 0.08 -1.57 23 17
Denver Nuggets -0.43 1.52 -1.95 18 20
Minnesota   Timberwolves -0.43 2.59 -3.02 19 22
Washington Wizards 0.00 3.14 -3.14 15 24
New Orleans Pelicans 0.01 3.58 -3.56 13 25
Phoenix Suns -0.60 3.63 -4.23 20 26
Los Angeles Lakers 0.00 4.28 -4.28 16 28
Milwaukee Bucks -3.84 0.78 -4.62 25 18
Brooklyn Nets -6.00 1.27 -7.27 30 19
Philadelphia 76ers -5.32 4.80 -10.11 28 29

January 19, 2016

NFL Exponential Smoothing Ratings Jan 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:38 pm

These ratings give more weight to more recent games and some weight to preseason Vegas over under win totals.

 

RANK TEAM RATING
1 SEA 10.9
2 CAR 9.8
3 KC 8.2
4 ARI 8.2
5 CINN 7.6
6 PITT 6.9
7 NE 6.1
8 MINN 5.7
9 DEN 4.7
10 GB 4.6
11 JETS 2.8
12 BUFF 1.7
13 WASH 0
14 DET -0.2
15 HOU -0.6
16 STL -1.5
17 OAK -2.4
18 GIANTS -2.5
19 ATL -2.6
20 BALT -3.1
21 SD -3.2
22 PHI -3.2
23 CHI -3.3
24 NO -3.6
25 DALL -4
26 MIA -4.3
27 INDY -4.9
28 SF -6
29 TAMPA -6.3
30 CLE -6.6
31 JACK -6.7
32 TENN -10.5

NFL Ratings January 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:36 pm

These ratings give each game of the season equal weight.

 

Rank Teams Off Def Rating
1 Arizona Cardinals 7.52 -2.69 10.22
2 Seattle Seahawks 3.88 -5.24 9.13
3 Cincinnati Bengals 3.51 -5.01 8.52
4 Kansas City Chiefs 3.31 -5.13 8.44
5 Carolina Panthers 6.05 -2.02 8.08
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.86 -3.30 7.16
7 New England Patriots 5.04 -1.86 6.90
8 Green Bay Packers 2.00 -2.96 4.96
9 Denver Broncos -0.01 -4.84 4.82
10 Minnesota Vikings 0.22 -4.52 4.74
11 New York Jets -0.04 -2.00 1.96
12 Buffalo Bills 0.47 0.06 0.41
13 Oakland Raiders 1.03 1.62 -0.59
14 Detroit Lions 0.76 1.44 -0.68
15 St. Louis Rams -3.61 -2.75 -0.86
16 Houston Texans -3.41 -2.09 -1.31
17 Baltimore Ravens 0.00 1.53 -1.53
18 Chicago Bears -0.27 1.36 -1.63
19 Washington Redskins -0.05 1.85 -1.90
20 New York Giants 2.45 5.13 -2.69
21 San Diego Chargers -1.46 1.24 -2.71
22 Atlanta Falcons -3.19 -0.44 -2.75
23 Philadelphia Eagles -0.30 3.41 -3.71
24 New Orleans Saints 1.21 6.53 -5.33
25 Indianapolis Colts -2.42 3.01 -5.42
26 Miami Dolphins -3.89 1.68 -5.57
27 San Francisco 49ers -5.58 0.01 -5.60
28 Dallas Cowboys -5.93 -0.08 -5.85
29 Cleveland Browns -3.14 2.93 -6.07
30 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.34 5.74 -6.08
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.76 3.51 -6.27
32 Tennessee Titans -4.90 3.89 -8.79
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